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Poll: Giffords leading Graf in Congressional District 8
By Bill Hess/Wick Communications
TUCSON - Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is nearly an 18-point favorite over Republican Randy Graf to win the Congressional District 8 seat in the Nov. 7 general election.
That is the finding of a poll commissioned by Wick Communications and the Arizona Range News that surveyed 402 potential voters - Democrats, Republicans, Independents and others - from Sept. 20-23. Wick Communications is the Sierra Vista-based company that owns the Arizona Range News.
Based on the poll, Giffords would get 52 percent of the vote and Graf would get 34.1 percent. Independent Jay Quick comes in with 2 percent, Libertarian David Nolan has 1.2 percent and others 1 percent.
That leaves 9.7 percent of those surveyed being undecided, which longtime pollster Margaret Kenski said is one of the smallest amounts of undecided she has ever seen. Her firm conducted the poll, as well as a survey during the primary that predicted Giffords and Graf would win their party's nominations.
With such a small number of undecided, even if Graf was to capture all those votes, which Kenski said is highly doubtful, Giffords still walks away with the election by 8 points.
Graf is seen as a one-issue candidate, and that issue is the border, said Kenski, who also has been a political operative.
Even with border issues considered his forte, Graf and Giffords surprisingly received the same percentage from those surveyed on who they would trust to solve the problem, Kenski said. Each candidate received 39.1 percent.
While Graf is making the border his issue and the survey indicates it is the top issue for Republicans, with 42.9 percent responding so only 15 percent of Democrats did, making all the responses 29.1 percent, Kenski said
"Randy has to broaden his appeal," she said. "He has to talk something other than the border."
Giffords swept the six other issues, including ones traditionally considered strong Republican turf, such as keeping taxes lower and controlling the deficit. Giffords had a 46.5 percent over Graf's 36.6 percent on the tax question. And she was nearly 20 percentage points ahead - 48 to 28.4 - of Graf when it came to taking care of the deficit.
The Democrat also led Graf on other issues the national Republican Party sees as its territory - combating terrorism and handling the war in Iraq. Giffords beat out Graf 42.8 to 35.3 on terrorism and 44.8 to 28.6 when it came to handling of the Iraqi conflict.
Two of the traditional Democratic issues - health and Social Security - were easily in Giffords' favor, according to the poll. She had a 60 percent trust factor over Graf's 19.7 percent in handling health issues and 53.2 to 25. 1 on Social Security.
But Kenski said Giffords must be more definitive in her responses, rather than having open-ended answers to questions.
"She needs to fill out the details of what she would support in terms of legislation on critical issues," the pollster said.
Giffords' two-digit lead over Graf is "not insurmountable," Kenski said.
In 1984, Jim Kolbe made his second attempt to become a congressman. He was far behind Democratic incumbent Jim McNulty. But the Republican pulled out a win, albeit by a slim margin, Kenski said.
Kolbe, who has decided to retire, has been the area's congressman since that election. McNulty only served one term. At that time, the area was Congressional District 5. It has since changed to become Congressional District 8.
The survey, conducted by Tucson-based Arizona Opinion, made calls to residents in the congressional district based on the population of the district area.
Pima County has the largest population base in the district, and 328 people responded from there. Cochise County had 63 respondents, Pinal County had seven people answer the questions, and Santa Cruz County had four.
As for the political-affiliation of the respondents, 182 were Republicans, 160 were Democrats and 60 were independents or others.
When it came to being conservative, moderate or liberal, 173 said they were moderate, 152 called themselves either somewhat or very conservative, and 63 claimed they were somewhat or very liberal.
Fourteen did not identify themselves in any of the categories.
The majority of the respondents - 105 - said their household income was between $25,001 and $50,000 a year. The next highest income group - 75 people - made between $50,000 and $75,000.
Kenski said the end result of the Republican and Democratic primaries also has had an impact.
The primaries were hard fought, but the Democrats were able to come together behind Giffords.
On the other hand, Kolbe has refused to endorse Graf. In 2004, the two men had a bitter primary. The congressman's choice for an heir, Steve Huffman, has shown to be lukewarm to supporting Graf.
Both parties fielded nearly a half dozen primary candidates.
In the summary of the survey, Kenski notes although Congressional District 8 is a Republican-leaning area, the region is essentially moderate on social issues and somewhat conservative economically.
"Giffords' positioning herself as a centrist Democrat with small business experience appears to have pushed her toward a strong lead at present," the pollster wrote.
But there is a different view about Graf.
"Graf's survival in a negative primary attests to organizational skills but he has to counteract the image that he is an extremist who is too conservative for the moderate Republicans and Independents in CD 8," Kenski wrote.
(Sierra Vista Herald senior reporter Bill Hess can be reached at 515-4615 or by e-mail at bill.hess@svherald.com.)
That is the finding of a poll commissioned by Wick Communications and the Arizona Range News that surveyed 402 potential voters - Democrats, Republicans, Independents and others - from Sept. 20-23. Wick Communications is the Sierra Vista-based company that owns the Arizona Range News.
Based on the poll, Giffords would get 52 percent of the vote and Graf would get 34.1 percent. Independent Jay Quick comes in with 2 percent, Libertarian David Nolan has 1.2 percent and others 1 percent.
That leaves 9.7 percent of those surveyed being undecided, which longtime pollster Margaret Kenski said is one of the smallest amounts of undecided she has ever seen. Her firm conducted the poll, as well as a survey during the primary that predicted Giffords and Graf would win their party's nominations.
With such a small number of undecided, even if Graf was to capture all those votes, which Kenski said is highly doubtful, Giffords still walks away with the election by 8 points.
Graf is seen as a one-issue candidate, and that issue is the border, said Kenski, who also has been a political operative.
Even with border issues considered his forte, Graf and Giffords surprisingly received the same percentage from those surveyed on who they would trust to solve the problem, Kenski said. Each candidate received 39.1 percent.
While Graf is making the border his issue and the survey indicates it is the top issue for Republicans, with 42.9 percent responding so only 15 percent of Democrats did, making all the responses 29.1 percent, Kenski said
"Randy has to broaden his appeal," she said. "He has to talk something other than the border."
Giffords swept the six other issues, including ones traditionally considered strong Republican turf, such as keeping taxes lower and controlling the deficit. Giffords had a 46.5 percent over Graf's 36.6 percent on the tax question. And she was nearly 20 percentage points ahead - 48 to 28.4 - of Graf when it came to taking care of the deficit.
The Democrat also led Graf on other issues the national Republican Party sees as its territory - combating terrorism and handling the war in Iraq. Giffords beat out Graf 42.8 to 35.3 on terrorism and 44.8 to 28.6 when it came to handling of the Iraqi conflict.
Two of the traditional Democratic issues - health and Social Security - were easily in Giffords' favor, according to the poll. She had a 60 percent trust factor over Graf's 19.7 percent in handling health issues and 53.2 to 25. 1 on Social Security.
But Kenski said Giffords must be more definitive in her responses, rather than having open-ended answers to questions.
"She needs to fill out the details of what she would support in terms of legislation on critical issues," the pollster said.
Giffords' two-digit lead over Graf is "not insurmountable," Kenski said.
In 1984, Jim Kolbe made his second attempt to become a congressman. He was far behind Democratic incumbent Jim McNulty. But the Republican pulled out a win, albeit by a slim margin, Kenski said.
Kolbe, who has decided to retire, has been the area's congressman since that election. McNulty only served one term. At that time, the area was Congressional District 5. It has since changed to become Congressional District 8.
The survey, conducted by Tucson-based Arizona Opinion, made calls to residents in the congressional district based on the population of the district area.
Pima County has the largest population base in the district, and 328 people responded from there. Cochise County had 63 respondents, Pinal County had seven people answer the questions, and Santa Cruz County had four.
As for the political-affiliation of the respondents, 182 were Republicans, 160 were Democrats and 60 were independents or others.
When it came to being conservative, moderate or liberal, 173 said they were moderate, 152 called themselves either somewhat or very conservative, and 63 claimed they were somewhat or very liberal.
Fourteen did not identify themselves in any of the categories.
The majority of the respondents - 105 - said their household income was between $25,001 and $50,000 a year. The next highest income group - 75 people - made between $50,000 and $75,000.
Kenski said the end result of the Republican and Democratic primaries also has had an impact.
The primaries were hard fought, but the Democrats were able to come together behind Giffords.
On the other hand, Kolbe has refused to endorse Graf. In 2004, the two men had a bitter primary. The congressman's choice for an heir, Steve Huffman, has shown to be lukewarm to supporting Graf.
Both parties fielded nearly a half dozen primary candidates.
In the summary of the survey, Kenski notes although Congressional District 8 is a Republican-leaning area, the region is essentially moderate on social issues and somewhat conservative economically.
"Giffords' positioning herself as a centrist Democrat with small business experience appears to have pushed her toward a strong lead at present," the pollster wrote.
But there is a different view about Graf.
"Graf's survival in a negative primary attests to organizational skills but he has to counteract the image that he is an extremist who is too conservative for the moderate Republicans and Independents in CD 8," Kenski wrote.
(Sierra Vista Herald senior reporter Bill Hess can be reached at 515-4615 or by e-mail at bill.hess@svherald.com.)
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